There are number of factors that are going against Anwar Cheema this time:
All baradries are united together to defeat Anwar Ali
Strong Gujjar baradry who's candidate once defeated son of Anwar Chema on MPA seat are supporting PMLN.
A candidate Shams Naveed Cheema is also contesting election will divide Cheema baradry vote, remember Shams Naveed Cheema was runner up in 2002 election with more than 38000 votes.
Cheema success was mostly based on his work related to Punjab govt and since 1985 he always got support from provincial govt but this was first time in history during the last 5 years that he lost support of Punjab govt.
Bad performance by PPP/Q is also hurting his chance to win
SS start number of project in this area during last five year
Last but not least people feed up with Anwar Cheema and they want change.
Your comments for and against above factors will be appreciated.