NA 160 - Sahiwal-I

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  • I believe your projection in NA160 Sahiwal 1 is slightly off the mark, to say the least.

    Although Nouraiz's position is weak in Sahiwal city limits but he is in a relatively strong position in the rural areas of the constituency.

    Overall, it will be a very close finish between Nouraiz of PMLQ and Imran Shah of PMLN. The majority of the winning candidate will be less than 2000. PPPP candidate will most likely end-up third.

    Because of this rural/urban divide PMLQ will win the provinsial seat PP220 while PMLN will win PP221 (Sahiwal city seat)

  • It is a strange constituency where PPP won lastime in 2002 and PML(Q) was third behind PML(N). Now the PPP winning candidate is on PML(Q) ticket and the PML(Q) losing candidate is on PPP ticket

    Of the 53,000 votes that Nauraiz Shakur got in 2002, at least half were PPP votes and the rest were his personal votes, on a conservative estimate. So now, he is likely to get his personal votes plus party votes of PML(Q). Q league has virtually no party vote bank here. Assuming that his personal vote bank has increased by 50% during his ministerial tenure, Nauraiz Shakur is then likely to get at the maximum a total of about 40,000 votes. These votes are not going to be enough to get him a victory.

    Syed Imran Ahmad of PML(N) got 43,000 votes in 2002. Now things are much better for PML(N) due to return of NS. So he is likely to get more than 50,000 votes giving an easy victory to PML(N).

  • I beg to differ.

    The issue is that from 1970's until 2002 the provincial seat PP220 was won by the Khagga family either Ahmad Shah on PML ticket or by his nephew Walayat Shah on PPP ticket. After the death of Ahmad Shah only Walayat Shah remains in the field in 2008. Both the Khagga groups are now supporting Nauraiz. (Mazhar Shah of PPP is not from Nur Shah - he is from a different family).

    If in the final count Nauraiz manages to bag most votes from Nur Shah and adjoing areas then it will be difficult for Imran Shah to cover his lead. my own assessment is that even of Nauraiz loses the city with a margin of upto 5,000 votes he may still win from the rural areas. If the margin is bigger than 5000 votes he will lose. My information is that Nauraiz is doing very well in the rural areas.

    This will be a very tight race indeed.

  • Thanks.

    So basically that means the turnout in sahiwal city is going to be the deciding factor. More votes that are polled in Sahiwal city, more is going to be the lead of Imran Shah and more difficult it will be for nauraiz shakoor to fill that gap.

    I cannot understand Anwar ul Haq Ramay. From Jamaat-i-Islami to PML(N) to PML(Q) to PPP now, this man has been a passenger in every train. Maybe Tahreek-i-insaf is next.