NA 157 - Khanewal-II
justice last edited by
Hi, I think that I Know this constituency very well. Yes it has been a PMLN seat till last election. BUt the ground realities have changed alot here since OCT 1999. The Hirajs never won this seat in past Allah Yar Hiraj(on PPP ticket ) (father of Hamid Yar Hiraj) contested and lost twice on this seat against Aftab Daha but later on Allah Yar Hiraj made one of his son Nazim and consequently made his other sons MNA and MPA from the same NA and PP seats. They joined PMLQ later now Hamid yar's brother is a Nazim here elected for second time. I know that ideally it should be a PMLN seat but my friend try to look at the ground realities not only on this seat but all over Pakistan, I have seen your predictions, any seat where you have a PMLQ Nazim, can u imagine of winning anybodyelse and we have such shameless president in the history of Pakistan who can do anything, will he let PMLN win, no way, I have seen many elections in this country we could not have fair election even undercivilian presidents. SO all these predictions could be reality if we had fair elections but not now. Any way about NA157, even if you forget about rigging by Gov, PMLN doesnot have very sTrong candidate, Ofcourse, PMLN has its own vote bank but that is not sufficient, to win atleast you need a politician not a college boy. Yes PMLN could win if Irfan Daha ( father of current candidate) did not try to be very smart and let Aftab Daha contest on NA seat or he himself could have get a GENUINE BA degree, just to remind you, he had submitted fake degree. Now they didnot have Aftab Daha even as acovering candidate so they had to bring this young chap. i dont hav objection on a young candidate but I want to tell you that Khanewal is not city where you can say that seats will move from generations to generation particularly NA157. I think result is that mr. hamid Yar hiraj will win due to following reasons.
1. Brother is District Nazim
2. GOVT support
3. The biggest rigging in the history of Pakistan
I think these two are the key factors all over the Pakistan in election 2008. I think you over looked these factors when you made your predictions. My dear firend its not a UK or US elections.
But even if you remove these factors, the Hirajs will win and reasons are
1. Poilitically active
2. Weak PMLN candidate
Some other factors to be highlighted
1- Hamid Yar Hiraj won this seat as Independent candidate and not on PPP ticekt. Although PPP support was there and many groups of PMLQ were aslo supporting him and this way he managed to get about 74000 votes in 2002 elections. When you say that musharraf is there and rigging will be a major factor, dont forget, we are not comparing the currrent situation with 1997 or previous elections. We need ot analyse based on situation in 2002 and 2008.
In 2002, Musharraf was MUCH MORE STRONGER than now.
dont forget he was chief of army staff, and that he is not now. role of ISI is now limited compartively.
In 2002, NS and BB fator was almost non existent.
There was no issue of Qatil LEague.
No issue of elctricity, gas and ATTA crises etc.
So this sums up to a worse situaion for mushrraf and co. when we comapred it to 2002 elections.
Now besides all these hurdles, and besides all opponent groups bhind one candidate ( hamid ar Hiraj), PMLN candidate got more than 52000 votes and the same time MMA candiate bagegd 12000 votes.
This time PPP has its own strong candidate and moste of vote split will impact Hiraj and not the Daha.
Even if we assume situation being as worst for PMLN as it was in 2002, factor of PPP candidate is enough to amke this a triangular cntest and in turn helping PMLN candidate.
justice last edited by
Hi, thanks for your answer. Actually I tell you one thing that yes last time, Hamid Yar was an independent candidate but do you know that he was first given the PPP ticket in 2002 which HIrajs returned and contested independently( because they had become LOTA even before elctions but it was under the table) despite the visit by Naheed Khan to Khanewal. Then Naheed Khan announced it in a public gathering at Khanewal that PPP will support PMLN candidate just to take revenge from Hirajs. It was the only constituency in 2002 in Khanewal where on PMLN candidate's banner, there was PPP flag as well and even Dawn newspaper showed this rare picture in 2002.
Now coming to the second part, I donot think that PPP has a strong candidate even now, Faisal Imam (brother of Fakhar Imam), he cannot win from Khanewal city (NA 157), no roots at all on this constituency, I would say even its difficult for his brother to get the other seat, Yes Fakhar Imam might have win this time against Raza Hayat Hiraj if he had been loyal to his leader NS. But unfortunately now two lotas are facing eachother so whoever is more capable in Lota categories will win. Any way, i think , I went on a different area.
Coming back to NA 157, with all these above arguments, i think that Hiraj won last time not because of PPP vote but beacause of votes from GHQ and District office Khanewal( Nazim) and even surprisingly Hiraj enjoy the support from these two in election 2008 and i would say that even more than 2002 as Hamid Yar's brother elected for second time as District Nazim against Faisal Imam yes same Faisal Imam who is now PPP candidate. Its again failure of PMLN leader Irfan Daha that in District Nazim election, they did not have proper PMLN candidate to present and they agreed with PPP to support their candidate. I would say that Mr. Daha even could not properly cash NS visit to Khanewal as I personally think that NA 157 is confirmed PMLN seat but in fair election and NS is very popular there. But Mr. daha didnot properly organised his visit to Khanewal. So a bit depressed by NS reception at NA157 due to very poor leadership. Although, it was a big reception but for leader like NS who is one of the most Popular leader in Pakistan, particularly in Punjab must have a great reception wherever he goes.
I hope you will go through it and may help me to improve mu knowedge. For your question about Musharaf's strength, its a big debate, i donot disagree completely what you said but there is alot to say against it and i leave it for someother time.
mirbadshah last edited by
I agree with you that the polls were rigged as District Nazim was working for his brother who was contesting as MNA, lets analysis of this,
Everywhere in Pakistan PML (N) and PPP won in towns and cities where access to media is available and litracy rate is higher, and everywhere PPP and PMLN lost where these Nazims are in control.
IN Khanewal provencial PML N candidate won by 18000 vots, and in next constituancy of provencial assmbly PML N candidate won from both towns, ie, Makhdumpur and Abdul Hakim by almost 50000 vots.
Now what happened in rural areas that the candidate for provencial assmbly Mr. Hassnain Shaha is a fudal lord and hated because of his fathers acts of killing and dacoties, he dont have roots or relations with people of area and that gives Hiraj's an edge over him who are atleast locals.
In previous electiosn so many imported candidates were brought to that area and all lost against Hiraj's as they dont had any relation with local people, and present in provencial was not different.
Unless PPP or PMLN chooses to bring some local as a candidate in your provencil seats, there is no chance of win for PMLN or PPP, remember once PMLN gave ticket to a local in past and he defeated Hiraj's in provincial giving a huge support to National candiate.
Please dont put all blame on Nazim, PMLN and PPP are also at fault for awarding tickets to unknown people (rather bad repute) which became a catalyist for their defeat.
Conclusion is that if one can win from Khanewal provencial on National setat and looses because of next provencial, its not all the rigging but wrong choice of candidates for that seat.
I hope next time PMLN brings in some local as candidates rather then putting skylab.
eers99 last edited by
Hirajs are very powerful here.
This time, they may have PPP's support, too.
Syed Fakhar Imam's brother usually competes from here. He is not very popular here.
PML-N's Daha lost by only 500 votes.
He may give tough time to Hamid Hiraj but otherwise PML-N doesn't seem like winning here
phd_politics last edited by
Daha family is still very much strong in NA- 157 as they never lost till 1997 and got good number of votes in 2002 and almost won in 2008 despite tough conditions. now shahbaz sharif has given green signal to haji irfan daha(4 times mpa)so he might contest on NA seat while ppp's sitting mpa nishat daha is expected to contest on mpa seat on pml-n ticket in 2013. so Daha family has an upper hand to clinch this seat in 2013. while sohail sikandar daha is in pti now a days so if he contests on pti ticket then he may split the votes of daha family which could harm DAHAz of pml-n otherwise pml-n is in better position to win this seat against Hiraj Family as hiraj family may not be enjoying brute force support of govt machinery this time.
chaudary801 last edited by
this is Khanewal city seat .... nd pmln leading the race ...
syed786 last edited by
@ PhD_Politics , Bro who is the head of DAHA Family now?? I know Aftab Daha who died and now who is the family elder of this family??
chaudary801 last edited by
its Irfaan Daaha
syed786 last edited by
There is a news about Hamid Yar Hiraj EX MNA from NA 157 is joining PML N...Kindly if any local person from NA 157 confirm this news?