لڑتے لڑتے ہو گئی گم - ایک کی چونچ اور ایک کی دم



  • ڈاکٹر شاہد مسعود صاحب کا کل اور آج کا شاہد نامہ دیکھیں تو پتہ چلتا ہے کہ انہیں مستقبل کا منظر صاف صاف نظر آ رہا ہے جو میں کی مہینوں سے لکھ رہا ہوں کہ عمران خان اور نواز شریف کی لڑائی دراصل زرداری کی فتح ہے. وہ ایک جملہ بار بار استعمال کر رہے ہیں جو میں نے اس صورتحال کے لیے استعمال کیا تھا

    لڑتے لڑتے ہو گئی گم - ایک کی چونچ اور ایک کی دم

    ایک بات یقینی ہے عمران خان جو بھی ووٹ توڑیں گے وہ نواز شریف کا ہوگا. پی پی پی کا کوئی ووٹ عمران خان کو یا کسی بھی پی پی پی کے باغی کو نہیں جا سکتا. نواز شریف کا ووٹ تقسیم ہونے کا فایدہ صرف زرداری کو ہوگا. وہ نہ صرف مزید پانچ سال کے لیے بلا شرکت غیر حکومت بنائے گا بلکہ سینٹ میں بھی اکثریت حاصل کر لے گا اور اس طرح اپنی پسند کی آئیں میں ترمیم بھی کر سکے گا اور سب سے بڑھکر مزید پانچ سال صدر بن کر نہ صرف ملک لوٹے گا بلکہ اپنی پسند کا آرمی چیف اور چیف جسٹس بھی لے آئیگا

    یہ احساس ایک نہ ایک دن ہونا ہی تھا. کل کا اگر آپ نے حسن نثار کا کالم پڑھا ہوگا تو اسکا آخری جملہ یاد کریں کہ کیا تھا؟

    چلیں میں لکھ دیتا ہوں تاکہ آپکو کالم ڈھونڈنے کی زحمت نہ ہو

    ن لیگ میں ضرورت سے زیادہ بڑا ڈینٹ پڑ گیا تو یہ جمہوریت کے لئے نیک شگون ہرگز نہ ہو گا… کیسے؟ پھر کبھی تفصیلاً عرض کروں گا



  • بات یقینی ہے عمران خان جو بھی ووٹ توڑیں گے وہ نواز شریف کا ہوگا. پی پی پی کا کوئی ووٹ عمران خان کو یا کسی بھی پی پی پی کے باغی کو نہیں جا سکتا


    Bawa sahib,

    Salam

    Does this mean that PPP supporters strongly believe in the ideology (whatever it is) of their party and the supporters of PML(N) dont. Does it also mean that PML(N) supporters are fed up of PML(N), its ideology (whatever it is) and in PTI seem to find a reasonable alternate.

    This whole argument that PML(N) vote will be divided seems odd and with respect seems to be coming from a defeatist mind. If PML(N) is performing and has solid supporters why shall it worry about losing its supporters to PTI?



  • بلکہ اپنی پسند کا آرمی چیف اور چیف جسٹس بھی لے آئیگا


    Bawa bhai

    It has happened twice in past and the results were devastating for Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif sahib. There is a possibility that it may not work for Zardari either.

    By the way isnt it important that we have a strong civilian government that can allow army and judiciary to have free hand only in affiars that matter to army and judiciary respectively. If not some of us will continiously be crying abou strong and powerful establishment.

    It seems that anyone is acceptable to be strong civilian ruler excpet someone from PPP. I support that any incompetent ruler from PPP shall not have absoluete power, in fact shall not be allowed to rule the country, but expecting and wishing for a stronger role of army and judiciary in PPP rule only seems bit hypocritic.



  • ہیپوکرٹ بھائی اکثر تلخ حقیقت کواتنی خوبصورتی سے بیان کر جاتے ہیں کے سامنے والا منہ بسورتا رہ جاتا ہے - معزز بلاگر کی تو ساری بھینس پانی میں چلی گی.



  • ن لیگ میں ضرورت سے زیادہ بڑا ڈینٹ پڑ گیا تو یہ جمہوریت کے لئے نیک شگون ہرگز نہ ہو گا… کیسے؟ پھر کبھی تفصیلاً عرض کروں گا


    And a big dent in PPP is very good for democracy. I think we shall be having even rules for all and even expectations from all.

    A person can cast only one vote and regardless it is to a PTI, PML, PPP or any other party nominated candidate shall be respected and shall not be considered as a negative dent in one party's support.

    I wish if we all can really vote indepndently, to the right candidate and to the right party (But is there any right party in Pakistan?)



  • So you are saying .. people who supports Imran Khan , should stop doing so and start Supporting Nawaz Sharif ,as the main Anti PPP /Zardari Leader.

    I am really surprised that it came from you , while you usually pretend to be a champion of democracy. It is right of new people and parties to compete in election ..Let people try to come out of this Catch 22 situation and decide for themselves. Let Democracy shape itself in its own way.

    i am sorry to say, You sound like a Lifafa Journalist here or an agent of status quo..so disappointing..

    If people still decide for Zardari to come to power . Then they deserve 'Zardari'. I wonder why pro PPP vote bank wont get cracked after this "wonderful" exhibition of this "Good" governance.



  • @ hypocrite

    و علیکم السلام بھائی جی

    آپ بخوبی جانتے ہیں کہ پاکستان خصوصا پنجاب میں دو ہی ووٹ بنک ہیں. ایک پی پی پی اور ایک انٹی پی پی پی. یہ دونوں نظریاتی ووٹ بنک ہیں. مشرف نے اس ووٹ بنک کو مسلم لیگ قاف بنا کر توڑا. اب یہ ووٹ عمران اور نواز شریف میں تقسیم ہوگا (پنجاب کے شہروں میں). اسکا منتقی فایدہ زرداری کو ہوگا. اسوقت صورتحال یہ ہے کہ ماضی کے برعکس اس بار نواز شریف نے اسٹبلشمنٹ کے اشارے پر چلنے سے انکار کر دیا ہے جس کی وجہ سے اسٹبلشمنٹ کو عمران خان کو آگے لانا پڑا. جلد یا بدیر اسٹبلشمنٹ کو اس غلطی کا احساس ہونا ہی تھا کیونکہ اسٹبلشمنٹ زرداری کو اتنا طاقتور نہیں دیکھ سکتی. اسٹبلشمنٹ کو ایک نہ ایک دن یہ احساس ہونا ہی تھا جو شاید اب ہونا شروع ہوگیا ہے یا جلد ہو جائے گا یا ممکن ہے کہ نواز شریف جھک گیا ہو

    رہا سوال یہ لوگ نواز شریف کے کیوں خلاف ہوئے ہیں. وہ نواز شریف کی کچھ ذاتی مجبوریاں اور سسٹم ہو فوج سے بچانے کی کوشش تھی کہ اس نے زرداری حکومت کو کھلی ڈھیل دی جو اب عمران خان کی سورت میں اسکے گلے پڑ رہی ہے



  • Choudhry Hashmet sahib

    It is just that this argument about voting PTI is going to weaken PML seems to me as bit illogical.

    Why not one says that voting for PML(N) is going to weaken PTI share and hence one shall not vote for PML(N). I guess because it seems a very weak argument but then it shall be equally illogical to ask to not vote for PTI as it affects PML(N.

    Bottom line is that the candidate and party that deserves the vote shall get the vote.

    I think PML(N) being in the political arena for so long shall bank on its strengths, program, commitment to people and servcies rendered to people to request voters support.



  • @ hypocrite

    ڈنٹ والے کومنٹس میرے نہیں حسن نثار کے ہیں یا دوسری صورت میں انٹی پی پی پی لوگوں کے ہیں



  • Hypocrite Sb.

    That's exactly what comes to the mind of an average layman when one hears this argument from PMLN that vote for us otherwise Zardari will win. Infact, it further alienates people from Noon League because of the weakness of their argument.



  • Bawa sahib

    But the vote bank that belongs to PPP and PML(N) few decades ago belonged to some other parties or ideologies. This vote bank moved to PPP and PML. Let it move again if the parties have failed to hold on to the votebank.

    If these two parties cannot perform and think that only they have the right to rule because they have a vote bank then in my hubmle opinion it is wrong.

    A votebank shall only be based on service, governance and delivery of servcies to voters as per promised ideology.

    PPP or PML or PTI shall not continue to count on their votebanks without any delivery of good governance.

    This pro and anti establishment stances is also one of many political moves that are played in political arena. BB was anti establishment and when the time came for her to seek share in power she sought support from establishment.

    What is the guarantee that PML(N) will retain the same stance for long after coming to power. To me it was just a political move by PML to show that they are different from Zardari led PPP.



  • In Pakistani political spectrum, political parties center to right are more divided comparing to parties center to left, so is the elector.

    People from center to left does not have much choice, they either go with PPP at national level or with ethnic parties like MQM, ANP who are secular in nature. Where as right is divided in many layers, from political parties perspective like Muslim League A-Z, PTI or religions political parties like JI, JUP, JUI and many other religions parties like SSP, ST.

    So yes, if you add a new party with right leaning tendency it will peal the votes from center to right not the vise versa.



  • اسٹبلشمنٹ کے پرانے کھلاڑی روئیداد خان کھل کر اعتراف کر رہے ہیں کہ اسٹبلشمنٹ عمران خان کو سپورٹ کر رہی ہے

    شاہد نامہ - بارہ نومبر



  • It is a fact that PPP vote bank is around 25-30%. And anti PPP vote bank is off course in majority around 70%. But looking at all the election results from 1988 to 2008, it is evident that PPP comes in to the power only when anti PPP right wing vote splits massively between anti PPP parties. There is a simple example that in the constituencies where PML(N) won 2008 elections with a margin of few thousands votes against PPP, in the coming election with the same trend, most of such seats would be win by PPP due to a major division of anti PPP votes between PML(N), Pti and JI.



  • صحافی سلیم بخاری بھی کھل کر عمران خان کے پیچھے اسٹبلشمنٹ کا ہاتھ بتا رہے ہیں تاکہ نواز شریف کو سبق سکھایا جائے



  • @ hypocrite

    Bawa sahib

    But the vote bank that belongs to PPP and PML(N) few decades ago belonged to some other parties or ideologies. This vote bank moved to PPP and PML. Let it move again if the parties have failed to hold on to the votebank.

    بھائی جی

    یہ ووٹ بنک پہلے بھی پی پی پی اور انٹی پی پی پی تھا اور آج بھی اسی صورت میں موجود ہے



  • Give it a rest Bawa G!

    There is no more "Bhutto" in PPP, that Zardari can use to fool our Sindhi brothers and sisters in next general elections. It's all Zardari and mimi Zardari (Bilawal B. Zardari) now.

    نام بدل لینے سے کوئی گیدڑ شیر نہیں بن جاتا ، گیدڑ اپنا نام شیر رکھ لے تو رہتا تو گیدڑ ہی ہے

    And don't forget Zulfiquar Mirza, he has support of some 20 PPP MPA's from Sindh, and with that Zardari Sindh Card is effectively neutralized.

    And if Shah Mehmood Qureshi joins PTI, which he probably would (due to the pressure from his son to join PTI), and with that brings another group of (clean from financial corruption) PPP MNAs and MPAs along with him to PTI, who are genuinely fed up with Zardari and his cronies, that will break the back of Zardari PPP in south Punjab and interior Sindh.

    So you see Bawa G that Zardari is more than enough to destroy PPP...he even helped in destroying PMLN by getting them to play the "friendly opposition" in national assembly and handing them over the Punjab govt...similarly exposed and pretty much damaged MQM in Karachi and ANP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

    And please anyone could tell me the difference between left wing and right wing politics in the "context of Pakistani politics"...e.g, what's the difference between PPP (left wing party) and PMLN (right wing party) and their policies, thanks. (to me, these are two sides of the same coin and have only one agenda, i-e, to bleed this nation to death).



  • So much for denting PMLN vote bank, watch this clip below. Shah Mehmood Qureshi has 20-25 MPA with him, I think SMQ might just anounce his own party!!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nf4Rv7wtn28#!



  • @ mangoman

    There is no more "Bhutto" in PPP, that Zardari can use to fool our Sindhi brothers and sisters in next general elections.

    الیکشن ہونگے تو دودھ کا دودھ اور پانی کا پانی ہو جائے گا

    :)



  • Bawa sahib

    I thought there was vote bank of JI also in Punjab, Urban Sindh and PKP.

    By the way why the right wing has so much of fissure and divide and the left wing still is maintaining its vote bank which Wasimibr sahib has just mentioned to be only around 25 to 30%.

    Why cant the right wing parties join hand togethr. If the ideology is the same what is the problem? They dont want to share the "luxury" of serving masses?

    The whole point I was trying to comunciate is that if PML(N) is performing well this time and has good governance record from the past too, then it shall bank on its performance rather than continiously talking about division of votes. Why will PTI be able to get votes if PML(N) has a solid performance record.