NA 101 - Gujranwala-VII
In 2008 elections the contest in NA 101 will be very close between the PMLQ caqndidate Mr Hamid Nasir Chattha and the PML(N) candidate Justice (R) Iftikhar Ahmad Cheema.The predictions are so far in favour of Justice Iftikhar Cheema as he has the support of both chattha and cheema tribes and also double shah factor is playing a negative role on the sitting MNA Mr Hamid Nasir Chattha who is alleged to have been behind the arrest of The double shah charachter.
Dawn/ Jang / Express all have predicted that The new comer Justice Iftikhar Cheema may win these elections by a heavy margin.
PPP candaidate is lacking far behind and she is not even contesting the elections whole heartedly as both her provincial candidates are also performing very poorly. Thus according to express gujranwala, the favourable candidate is Justice Iftikhar Cheema and the runner up will be Mr Hamid Nasir Chattha.
In 2002 elections,
Hamid Nasir Chatta PML(J) 69171
Shoukat Hayat Chatha (Ind) 7169
Asma Shah Nawaz PPP 64355
Muhammad Saleem Aujalvi (PAT) 2711
I agree that the position of Hamid Nasir Chattha is pretty weak. But the PPP candidate Asma Shahnawaz got good votes last time. If she manages to divide the cheema votes, hamid nasir chattha may get an oustide chance, though it seems unlikely at the moment.
there used to be on Col(r) Ghulam sarwar cheema. where is he in this election?
I believe he or his son/daughter applied for PML(N) ticket but did not get it.
Col(r) Ghulam Sarwar Cheema common known as "Lota e Azam" in the constituency was the one who after the musharaff take over on oct 12,99 branded Mian Nawaz Sharif as " Ullu Ka patha" in all national newspapers again went to ask for ticket but this time he was disgraced and denied PPP and then PML(N) ticket. Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Marhuma Rated him as "personna non Gratta" and PML(N) flatly refused to entertain his application.
Now after having no option he is openly siding with Hamid Nasir Chattha and have placed hs daughter to oppose PML(N) candidate. On the other side when Mian shahbaz sharif and Nawaz Sharif visited the constituency his banner were also there to greet them. What A charachter to earn such a name "lota e Azam". :)
As far as Asma is concerned she is not getting enough support from her provincial candidates as in PP103 her candidate is a new comer Usman Talib Chattha a very weak one. Ijaz Samman the candidate from pp104 was a good candidate but PML(N) has brought a very tough conteder and he is cheema. Thus majority of the cheema tribe is siding with pml(n)so she has moved to the third position.
Main battle will be fought in between PMLQ and PML(N) candidates where according to the media PML(N) has a visible edge over PMLQ candidate.
But God knows better whats going to happen on the 18th of feb. I hope no rigging or no dhandla.
sorry readers in paragraph 3 i meant Asma is not getting enough support........
Today the Haroon rashid's column has praised the candidate Justice Iftikhar and called him Waliullah. Irrespective of his affiliation I would realy be ecstatic if someone defeats that Chatta. Is there any chance?
Well God knows better what will happen on the 18th of feb but let me assure you if there is no massive rigging (dhandla)then Mr Hamid Nasir Chattha's reign will be over and forgood.
No doubt Justice Cheema is a foreign qualified person.(a Barrister)A man of character and priciples and he had served in punjab as sessions judge and then as judge of the Lahore High Court and he is regarded as being one of the very strict and dead honest judges of his time but above all he is a true practicing muslim.While i Know Hamid Nasir personally he does not even know how to pray. What a difference?
But bro, lets see what 18th feb.2008 holds for NA 101. Its better be Justice Cheema.
can u plz give more valid points about his position in the constituency than personal attributes.
How justice cheema can counter chatha in his own area ( corresponding PP seat).
how much factor of district nazim is important there?
are there any main groups leaving or joing different parties?
what abt PPP vs PMLN contest in wazirabad city?
A cheema friend of mine from same constituency once told me Tehsil
Wazirabad is birthplace of cheema clan and whereever cheemas are
settled in pakistan or abroad, they have a relative there, is it
He also told me though wazirabad tehsil is dominated by cheemas but
in wazirabad city their numbers are insignificant, that is why cheemas always go for a political party ticket instead of counting
on their baraderi vote only. Any comments.
Let me give you some real picture on the ground.Y Justice Cheema? apart from his personal attributes( which i think you didn't like) he has the support of main chattha groups belonging to PP 103. There are 13/14 union councils in this PP seat out of which are three are dominated by Mr Hamid Nasir Chattha including his own Ahmad Nagar where he belongs to.The main Supporters of Justice cheema are the main Chattha clan of Hazrat Kailiawala union Council where his younger son is married in this clan and in ali pur chattha there are 2 UCs where PML(N)is spported by anti Hamid Nasir, Chattha clan, cheema clan and Rana bradri.( To set the record straight Hamid Nasir Chattha has never won in ali pur and Wazirabad towns.Then coming to Manchar Chattha UC where the PML(N)provincial candidate Mr Shaukat Hayat Chattha Belongs to.Let me give you an insight of Mr shaukat Hayat chattha, he ran for PP seat in 2002 and scored 22500 votes against Hamid Nasir who got 26500, so this will give you a picture that Shaukat Hayat has his own vote bank in this constituency. Bainka Cheema UC is a new joining in NA 101 and PP 103 includes major towns like Pir kot where the former President Mr Rafiq Tarar belongs is dominantly cheema UC and is supporting Justice as in full UC.Saroki UC is another union council where Justice cheema has full support of cheema clan then comes his own Mansur wali UC where he will defeat Hamid Nasir Chattha by a heavy margin.Basically let me divide for you in numbers.
UCs where chattha will win by a heavy margin.
Ucs where Justice cheema will win by a heavy margin.
Ali pur Chattha
Manchar Chattha (Hamid Nasir Used to win but not now)
Hazrat Kalianwala (Hamid Nasir Used to win but not now)
main Ucs where there will be a close contest,
So now you can analyse that for the first time someone is giving chattha a tough time of his life in his own area.
District Nazim's factor? Well thanx to geo and ary no one is bothering about him. As he could have changed the ground reality of this constituency but nothing happened and people are confronting him on two issues.
1. Why did he come now why not five years early?and now for what their votes so that they could win and vanish?
2. people ask him that you got your money dounbled by that double shah and then you got him arrested as he was posing your family a threat (may be a political threat?) and he does not have any answer.
So its not bothering PML(N)any longer.
Now PP 104.
Well the PP candidate from PP 104 is Mr Shaukat Manzoor.Former city Nazim and a social worker.His father Mr Manzoor Cheema is very old but very well respected by all the cheema clan in Wazirabad. He with the support of Justice Cheema and another major clan which lives on the other side of the GT road Bagri Clan (a jatt clan)where Justice cheema's eldest son is married will have a visible lead over Opponent and so will Justice Cheema.Bagri clan has three ucs and they are a close nit family all of them are occupied by them and they have asked Hamid Nasir even not to come there as first they always opposed him and secondly this time they have to support Justice Cheema as they are very close relatives.Same is the case with Manzoor Cheema's two ucs.Then comes 2 UCs of Dhonkal town where there will be a close contest between Justice Cheema and Chattha. Sodhra Uc is clearly siding with PML(N). By the side of Sodhra there are other 2 ucs where PP will win and in one PML(N) will compete and in the other Hamid Nasir will Compete the PPP candidate.
Thus the over all in this PP 104 will be that there will be a contest but not a close one between PML(N) and PPP leaving again PML(N) in the front, PPP at number 2 and PMLQ at 3rd position.
PML(N) has a great advantage as Justice cheema will face PMLQ on one side and PPP in the other leaving Hamid Nasir Chattha in number 3 in one end and PPP at 3rd position on the otherside.
I hope that i have given you a good insight of the NA 101 and its both PP constituencies. Now please check the ground situation and correct me if i am wrong somewhere.
SEE ALSO THE SITUATION IN WAZIRABAD GIVEN BELOW FOR ZUFI AS A PART OF PP104.
Now comes Wazirabad city. 25000 votes. Hamid Nasir never won.Never in history. PPP candidate last time gave Hamid Nasir tough time just on the basis of wazirabad city and belonging to cheema tribe because apart from Wazirabad, sodhra and dhonkal, rest of the PP 104 is all cheema and also there is hell of lot of Butt,Raja and Malik Baradri in Wazirabad city who in the absence of PML(N) candidate in 2002 supported her. But this time the ground reality has changed. Justice cheema being from the rural area and an elder fellow has attracted most of the cheemas behind him as the PP candidate from PP 104 Mr shaukat Manzoor was given ticket of PML(N) on the strong recommendation od Justice cheema at the last moment so that shows that major cheema players are siding with PML(N).At the same time former PP candidate of Hamid Nasir from Raja Baradri in 2002 elections has joined PML(N) similarly majority of Butt clan is supporting PML(N) because of the Kashmiri/butt factor and Nawaz Sharif.Thirdly the Malik bradri had its chairman Baldia last time and he had along with the other elders of Malik bradri decided to vote for Justice Cheema. Thus there will be a contest between Asma cheema of PPP being based in the city and Justice Cheema being another cheema and having support of all the major clans residing in Wazirabad.Hamid Nasir will surely be number 3 in the race in Wazirabad.
Thanks for this very nice and detailed analysis.
Very good analysis. BTW where is Naeem chatta these days?
Naeem Chattha? If i am not wrong you are asking about Naeem Hussain Chattha? If yes then he is not from Wazirabad. He belongs to Sheikhupura. If any other Naeem then i am not getting the name with refernce to NA 101.
Has anyone seen GM lately. cause he did not like my personal attributes for Justice Cheema. Please ask him to read my detailed analysis and thank you guys for reading it.
Sorry buddy to disturb you again. Saw your prediction table and saw PML(N) at number 2 in NA 101. Good Lord Dont know where you people gather this data from on which you have based this analysis of yours.
Plz read above and you are more than ever welcome to check the analysis by me on NA 101 and also consult newspapers on NA 101 and then predict.
your prediction table will put many people off your website if you will post such inaccurate and untrue predictions.
Anyhow wont comment on other constituencies but for NA 101, being a voter here and having lived all my life in the area and above all being your regular visitor, i think i have every right to correct your analysis and predictions.
Required your comments on NA 101, specially with retgards to prediction table???
my mistake. I always get his & mian zaman constituency not right.
NP. Naeem Hussain Chattha. Sheikhupura.
Mian Zaman Okara.
Am i right? :) if not then accept my apologies in advance.
Any latest news on NA 101.