Future Elections: A Mathematical Analysis

  • Note: Before proceeding further or before trying to reply to this thread, It is my request to not to use any foul language or name calling of any Party or personality. Please keep this discussion healthy and in good atmosphere. You can disagree and can provide logical arguments but please no name calling like D E N G U E brothers or Naswar Khan or something on these lines. These calculations are according to what I think, you can disagree and may do your mathematical analysis according to stats that you think are right. Once again, P L E A S E!!!

    2008 Elections / NA-49 (Islamabad-II)

    Registered Votes 242877

    Votes Polled136573

    Valid Votes135591

    Rejected Votes983

    Percentage of Votes Polled to Registered Voters 56.23%


    Awami Himayat Tehreek Pakistan 707

    Independent 121

    Independent 8294

    Independent 235

    Pakistan Muslim League 34546

    Mutthida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA) 979

    Independent 118

    Pakistan Muslim League (N) 45482

    Independent 325

    Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 44726

    Pakistan Aman Party 58

    Now, out of 8 crore votes, 3 crore votes were bogus, that were removed by Elelction comnission now. These are 37.5% of total votes, so remove 37.5% votes from each candidate votes. This is the result

    Awami Himayat Tehreek Pakistan 441.875

    Independent 75.625

    Independent 5183.75

    Independent 146.875

    Pakistan Muslim League 21591.25

    Mutthida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA) 611.875

    Independent 73.75

    Pakistan Muslim League (N) 28426.25

    Independent 203.125

    Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 27953.75

    Pakistan Aman Party 36.25

    Now, add PTI votes, for me, and you can disagree but in polite words, PTI gain lost of support in last 5 years. So if you believe that only 5000 people supported PTI in 2008 out of 1 lac, (Only 5%) now, 25-30% support PTI. So suppose 25% of vote bank of each candidate moved to PTI, so the new calculation will be like this

    Pakistan Muslim League (N) 21319.6875

    PTI 21186.09375

    Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 20965.3125

    Pakistan Muslim League 16193.4375

    Independent 3887.8125

    Mutthida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA) 458.90625

    Independent 152.34375

    Independent 110.15625

    Independent 56.71875

    Independent 55.3125

    Pakistan Aman Party 27.1875

    Awami Himayat Tehreek Pakistan 331.40625

    Now, in this 5 crore remaining votes, 3 crore new votes are included (Of youth) i.e. 60% of new votes. Now, we all know, the fact is Imran Khan is very popular in youth, make it 50% of youth new votes, to Imran Khan , 25% to PML N and 20% PPP. So in this consistuency, 60% new votes means 34154, 50% votes means 11954 to PTI, 25% votes means 5977 to PML N and 20% means 4781 to PPP.

    So the new results will be

    PTI 33140.19609

    Pakistan Muslim League (N) 26649.60938

    Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 25158.375

    Pakistan Muslim League 16193.4375

    Independent 3887.8125

    Mutthida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA) 458.90625

    Awami Himayat Tehreek Pakistan 331.40625

    Independent 152.34375

    Independent 110.15625

    Independent 56.71875

    Independent 55.3125

    Pakistan Aman Party 27.1875

    PTI wins, If you do not agree with my calculation, please provide me your calculations and I will calculate accordingly.

  • Mathematical analysis!!!

    If your analysis is correct then Pti would take 100 % seats in next elections. Since in your analysis they started with zero and reached 33000 surpassing everybody :).

  • Let me know about the things and calculations you do not agree? And they were 0 because they boycotted..

  • IA,

    Good work. Your are my kind of guy. I would split PMLQ votes in three way (not equally though). Majority of these Mush voters in educated area such as Islamabad would go to Insaf while in the rural area they may go to PPP CHAUDHRY coalition.

    Rigging by ballot box stuffing is a major question marks. All existing parties PMLx, PPP, MQM, ANP do that with their own justifications.

    Insaf will not have any trouble in major metro constituencies but the youngsters have to compromise with status quo bunch in the rural areas. Only thing is they have to be vigilant not to be taken over or be stabbed in the back.

  • @iftikharalam

    your wishful calculation may be correct in case of few constituencies where some heavy weights have joined PTI. But My actual concern is that "From where our beloved Imran Khan-the future Ameer Ul Momineen will get himself elected????

    I think he should contest on Facebook. So That he may become the FIRST EVER e-prime minister in the world;)

  • Its more hypothetical then mathmatical.

    Best of luck PTIans. There is no charge for wishful thinking. Everything will be clear on election day.

    But please work for the fair free elections and against the common enemy of ordinary masses , the one who always rigged the election , the holy cow 'BAHDUR FAUJ'.

  • Lol......seems more like a Sheikh Chilli's Biryani Daig than mathematical analysis......Wishmathics is more of an apt term to describe such fantasy which under the current scenario wouldn't even be achievable in Lala Land.

    As for iftikharalam, instead of conjuring such statistics while sleepwalking; you ought to come up with a re-joinder to storm_shadow wherein you misstated that JH was made President of P(o)TI before the intra party elections of the Payjama outfit was announced. Please review this thread again at your earliest convenience:


  • @storm shadow

    could u please stick to topic for once and base your arguments on logic, other than blowing hot air

  • @siddiqi

    please dont blow hot air.....as its already summer and is very hot for some...kaheen log kharab na ho jain

  • ^^^^ It's siddiqi73 for you, Respect.

    Logic!!! Hahahahahahahaha.......boy o boy, I don't know how logic can be exerted when a follower of the sheep herd would come up with such comical analysis on behalf of a payjama outfit which is yet to cross the threshold of ONE..

  • @1lhr,

    Brother, my mere presence has placed some folks in a state of constipated disposition. Before the same folks go about blowing air with a bang, you and I might want to don NBC suits and place gas masks on our faces.

  • there is no need to laugh so loud

    its still quite early in the morning...errr about 1pm...and people are just adjusting to daylight

  • @storm shadow

    future elections, mathematical calculations?

    any logic please or is that too difficult

  • @Respect,

    Instead of pontifying logic and future elections results, you would be better off advising iftikharalam bhai to first get his head checked out before blowing hot air in the guise of intellectual discourse.

  • Oh I forgot u still are basing your intellectual knowledge on the bogus 45% elections in 2008.

  • I'm not a pipliya and hence, 45% does not matter one bit to us.

  • If wishes were horses

    The reality is, Zardari will be thanking IK after general elections, and would say to him, had it not you, we could have been out of politics for good.... please keep up the good work and now i'll increase your salary...

  • yeh calculation uncle psha ne provide ki thi?

  • Nope Mango Bhai....these projections were actually formulated by P0nka Khan himself back in early 2002 and presented to Musharraf during that infamous P(o)TI CEC in the Presidency. By then, Ustad Tabla Master had already been elected through a sham referendum courtesy IK himself and these projections were basically treated by Musharraf as they are being treated on this forum right now.

  • iftikharalam -=- Pls add the following link to your calculations..