Who is going to win KP & Tribal areas in G.E 2013.
Guys there has been an interesting assesment done by someone and is viral on social medial for the battle of KP and tribal areas in the General election 2013. The assessment predicts the real competitors on each NA Seats and its possible winner.
MMA here represents either of the religous parties or the alliance..
NA 1 (Peshawar) PTI vs ANP winner PTI
NA 2 (Peshawar) PTI vs PPP vs MMA winner PTI
NA 3 (Peshawar) PTI vs ANP winner PTI
NA 4 (Peshawar) PTI vs PPP winner PTI
NA 5 (Nowshehra) PTI vs MMA vs PPP winner PTI
NA 6 (Nowshehra) PTI vs QWP vs MMA. winner PTI
NA 7 (Charsada ) PTI vs ANP winner PTI
NA 8 (Charsada) PTI vs QWP winner QWP
NA 9 (Mardan) PTI vs Khwaja Hothee vs ANP winner PTI
NA 10 (Mardan) PTI vs MMA vs ANP winner ANP
NA 11 (Mardan) PTI vs PPP vs ANP winner ANP
NA 12 (Swabi) PTI vs Eng. Usman Khan winner Indp.
NA 13 (Swabi) PTI vs ANP vs QWP winner PTI
NA 14 (Kohat) PTI vs PMLN vs MMA winner PTI
NA 15 (Karak) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
NA 16 (Hangu) PTI vs Indp vs ANP winner Indp.
NA 17 (Abottabad) PTI vs PML N winner PMLN
NA 18 (Abottabad) PTI vs PML N winner PTI
NA 19 (Haripur) PTI vs PML N winner PMLN
NA 20 (Mansehra) PTV vs PML N winner PTI
NA 21 (Mansehra) PTI vs PML N winner PMLN
NA 22 (Battagram) PTI vs MMA vs ANP winner MMA
NA 23 (Kohistan) PTI vs MMA vs ANP winner MMA
NA 24 (DI Khan) PTI vs PPP vs MMA winner PTI
NA 25 (Tank) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
NA 26 (Banuu) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
NA 27 (Lakki Marwat) PTI vs PMLN winner PMLN
NA 28 (Buner) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
NA 29 (Swat) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
NA 30 (Swat) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
NA 31 (Shangla) PTI vs PMLN winner PMLN
NA 32 (Chitral) PTI vs PPP winner PTI
NA 33 (upper dir) PTI vs MMA winner MMA
NA 34 (Lower dir) PTI vs MMA winner MMA
NA 35 (Malakand) PTI vs MMA winner PTI
Total seat 12..
PTI wins 9 seats
MMA wins 3 seats..
Total results : PTI = 30 seats.
MMA = 7 seats
PMLN= 5 seats
IND= 2 seats
QWP= 1 seats
ANP= 2 seats
From Punjab PTI is expecting to win 87 seats.
From Baluchistan 3 seats
From Sindh 5 seats
Total = 87+30+3+5 = 125.
No seat for PTI in KP .
less than five in Punjab , Only one seat in Punjab , Mianwali can be called a confirm seat of PTI .
The Election in KPK will depend on which party the JI forms alliance with. If JI forms alliance with PTI on seat to seat basis, then there would be an absolute sweep of PTI+JI alliance.
If JI goes with PML-N, it won't achieve much success as PML-N has support only in Abbottabad-Haripur-Mansehra.
If JI goes with JUI-F in MMA alliance (which is improbable), it could play as a vote spoiler in some constituencies and win in others.
I agree with you, in case JI does alliance with PTI, it would be a clean sweep in KP and FATA..
I guess QWP here stands for Qaumi watan party lead by Aftab Sherpao..
There is no party with the name of PTI is on ground any where in Pakistan election politics , This is an internet party , contesting elections on internet .
It a great loss for PTI; From 272 to 125; It means PTI will not sweep the elections;
No seats for PPP, LOL; great going
DI Khan ; winner is PTI; great; btw, who is the candidate? sorry , imran khan got it?
Totally biased predictions. Typical status quo mentality of downplaying the success of tsunami.
Given the immense popularity of PTI in KPK,tribal areas and Punjab, it will win all 35 seats from KPK, all 12 seats from tribal areas (though party affiliation is not allowed in tribal area elections), both the seats from Islamabad as well as all 148 seats from Punjab. From Sindh and Baluchistan, where it is relatively less popular, PTI will win 25 and 10 seats each.
Therefore, in the coming National Assembly, PTI will have 35+12+2+148+25+10 = 232 out of 272 directly contested seats.
This is a very conservative estimate, if PTI runs a good campaign, it can even sweep all 272 seats.
its still a loss; from 272 to 232; You have failed; We need somebody else;
The politics in KPK is different from other provinces. There has always been alternate results from the previous Elections every time. From elections since 1988, we can figure out that general trend is:
NA-1 to NA-13: ANP & PPP battle (hardly any PML-N or JUI-F support here)
NA-14 to NA-16: Mix of all Parties
NA-17 to NA-21: Strong PML-N support with Independant candidates mostly fighting against PML-N. (No ANP or PPP)
NA-22 & NA-23: Religious votebank dominates
NA-24 to NA-27: Strong JUI-F presence (PML-N & PPP exist in small number)
NA-28 to NA-31: Mix of all parties
NA-32 to NA-35: Strong JI and PPP presence.
But In 2002, MMA alliance got 29/35 NA seats, with big margins on every seat, and surprised everyone. It was only because of their one point agenda of promise to bring Sharia rule and anti-US stance.
Today, anti-US sentiments are even more than before. Plus the war on terror and the silence of ruling parties over killings of innocent in drone attacks would prove to be a backlash for all ruling parties in KPK. That's the same reason, PTI is the most popular in KPK because of its anti-drone policy and the promise to disengage Pakistan Army from war on terror.
We could absolutely see a recap of 2002, only this time it would be PTI. People of KPK have always shown the most intent for change in every elections. And this time will be no different.
Only way for Pti to get few seats , Come under Umbrella of PML N or PPP
Whom you will like ?
باقی خیبر پختونخواہ کا تو کچھ نہیں کہہ سکتا البتہ قبائلی علاقوں میں گولہ بارود جیتے گا
@xainahmad you are absolutely right. The approval ratings of pti are way ahead in KP province than other political parties.
Secondly KP is different from other provinces because people votes on ideology, prevailing international environment and Change.
Since 1990 , KP is ruled by PPP, ANP, PMLN, and MMA. So "Change" is inherited in the blood of the people from the province.
Veena Malik could be more better if your choice is only 'change' .
Please don't spoil the show;
Ok , Than put here the name of possible candidates here for KP only .
For PTI; NA1-NA35, IK
Now its your turn for atleast one other party
KPK is the garh of PTI and it will not just win 35 seats but about 45 from there.........as IK is very popular and has a big following in China as well ....when they get to know that IK's party has finally dcided to take part in elections the nearby towns and cities of China would join Pakistan ...... giving PTI 10 additional seats say included in KPK.
Also IK is equally popular in neighbouring India where he has been paying taxes for many many years and have a huge fan base.......like China few cities of India will form part of Pakistan and say giving 15 more seats from Punjab
Therefore, in the coming National Assembly, PTI will have 297 out of 272 directly contested seats.
This is a very conservative estimate, if Aghanistan and Iranian cities also join Pakistan than IK can easily score well above 300
@Mango mam.....hun das?
I have to thank you for what you did for me; You are the one I was looking for. Adonis was too conservative;
However, I have one objection; You did not mention the additional seats from sindh and balochistan; why?
This over exaggerated analysis done by so called "SOMEONE" on social media will be a matter of great concern for IK as 125 seats which is less than just a simple majority will negate the promises of bringing the so called "sunami". This result will bring a lot of badnami for IK instead of Sonami.