Najam Sethi dissecting Dr. Tahir ul Qadri

  • Though Najam Shady hardly talks any sense

    But his REVELATION of plan A,B and C were utter nonsense

    Was just shooting in the air with full blown jahalat on his face

    Yeah such informations are beyond the reach of his little sparrow

  • It is the most logical analysis i have come across anywhere so far.

    Particularly after Difa-e Pakistani morons decision to cancel their long march.

    His take on Imran's role in plan B also makes sense.

    Establishment has done its homework and laid out a meticulous plan.

    Only media has the power to foil it, will be interesting to see how the establishment handles the media.

    Pakistanis are very lucky to have a free press.

  • ایم کیو ایم ہر پلان کا حصہ ہے ۔

    رینٹ اے ریلی

  • چیمہ جی

    مجھے تو لگتا ہے کہ

    آخر میں دونوں پائیجان اکیلے رہ جائیں گے

  • Dr Qadri's drone attack

    Dr Tahir ul Qadri, a moderate cleric with a large following, has droned into Pakistan from Canada with a big bang and is threatening to unleash a firestorm in Islamabad shortly. The MQM, a fair weather friend, is backing the good doctor to the hilt. What's going on?

    Dr Qadri is a dual Pak-Canadian national. By law he cannot contest the Pakistan elections. He says he hasn't renounced his Canadian nationality because he hasn't yet decided to contest the general elections. Yet he has made bold to gather hundreds of thousands of his Minhaj ul Quran followers in Lahore to demand impossible electoral reforms in the next fifteen days, failing which he intends to congregate a million-strong gathering outside parliament and protest.

    Dr Qadri argues that if Benazir Bhutto could threaten a long march in 1992-3 and provoke the military to oust Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and if Nawaz Sharif could use the same tactics in 2009 to get the military to help restore the judges, why shouldn't he follow in their footsteps for the cause of establishing a truly independent and neutral caretaker government with input from the military and judiciary? It doesn't bother him that most caretaker governments to date have been cobbled together by the military - 1988 and 1990 by COAS General Aslam Beg, 1993 by COAS General Waheed Kakar and 1999 by COAS General Pervez Musharraf - and not one could measure up to the neutrality criteria set by Dr Qadri. Therefore conspiracy theories are afoot about his real agenda.

    Dr Qadri is primarily responsible for creating this perception. He has quoted provisions of the constitution that enable a delay in elections if necessary and criteria for qualification to contest them. By such reckoning, however, most candidates nominated by the two mainstream parties will not be good enough Muslims to qualify. He has also cited the establishment of a caretaker government of technocrats in democratic Italy for a significant period of time as one way forward. But he has neglected to mention one critical fact of divergence: the technocratic Mario Monti government in Italy that lasted 13 months and quit last week was ushered in at the behest of a sitting parliament with the approval of all the parties to carry out hard tax and not electoral reforms before elections, whereas Dr Qadri's formula seeks such a caretaker government without parliament and without the approval of the mainstream parties. The bigger irony is that Dr Qadri wants to stop certain types of people from entering parliament, yet he himself is not yet eligible to contest for public office.

    Questions are also being asked about the source of his funds. He claims that his motivated supporters in Pakistan and abroad have donated for the cause. Cynical Pakistanis are inclined to disbelieve him. Naturally, too, the two mainstream parties insist he is a front man for the military establishment that is seeking excuses to postpone the elections and thwart the PPP or the PMLN from returning to power.

    Dr Qadri has retracted slightly from his original posturing because of such hard questions. He is now insisting that he doesn't want a postponement of elections on any pretext nor is he seeking a "direct" military intervention. But he is sticking to his impossible demands for electoral rightsizing and neutral and upright caretaker governments in the next two weeks and is readying his popular forces for an assault on Islamabad.

    The PPP government is on track for negotiating caretaker arrangements with the PMLN in time for a May general election. But Dr Qadri has thrown a spanner in the works by rejecting their constitutional right to determine the issue.

    The PPP can partly pre-empt the problem by quickly announcing firm dates for the dissolution of the government and parliaments and establish a formal, transparent, neutral and credible machinery for making the caretaker governments to everyone's satisfaction. But this may not be sufficient to thwart the aims and objectives of those who seek a longer-term solution to the corruption and inefficiency of both mainstream parties and want to keep them from assuming power yet again.

    If Dr Qadri's long march materializes, the chances are that a crisis will be precipitated to draw the military into the fray. The government's reaction could be one cause. Terrorist attacks on the procession could draw blood and create a law and order problem. Imran Khan and other oppositionists including pro-military religious groups and organisations could join hands with Dr Qadri to exploit the occasion to destabilize the government and engineer its ouster. The interventionist judiciary might throw its weight behind such a move. Then the stage would be set for a postponement of elections and installation of a technocratic government for both reform and accountability for a couple of years a la Bangladesh rather than Italy. Whether this new experiment will succeed or not remains a moot question

  • The rumors are that army has already struck a deal with the US for an army backed "caretaker" regime.

    This leaves me with the hope that the new regime will be able to deal with the Taliban.

  • It is the first time in the history of Pakistan that we are heading towards elections and transfer of power without direct control of establishment!! Interm government will be decided by consenses, and not nominated by establisment for the first time!! This is the the reason we are seeing stupid and desperate moves like first supporting even a losse character like imran khan and now a stupid and crazy man like tahir ul qadri! by our establishment!!

    Situation in all previous elections!

    • 1965 election, ayub against Fatima Jinnah: election under direct military establishment.

    • 1970 election: under direct military establishment of yahya khan.

    • 1988 election: under direct military and civilian establishment of aslam beg and ishaq khan.

    • 1990 election: under interim government, selected directly by establishment.

    • 1993 election: under interim government, selected directly by establishment.

    • 1997 election: under interim government, selected directly by establishment.

    • 2002 election: under direct military establishment (martial law)

    • 2008 election: under direct military establishment

    • Note: for rest of the 35 years military establishment with the help of civilian establishment, have directly been in power!! through MARTIAL LAW!!


    only because of principled politics of nawaz sharif, we are heading towards a peaceful and CIVIL!! transfer of power! which establishment is trying to portray as muk muka!!!!

  • نجم سیٹھی طاہر قادری کے بارے میں اپنی ہی اکھاڑ پچھاڑ کا تجزیہ کرتے ہوے. "ڈاکٹر قادری نجم سیٹھی سے بھی صاحب زیرک نکلے" - طلعت حسین

    Aapas Ki Baat Geo news - 26-Dec-2012

  • Dear Sam45,

    Your post,unfolding the previous history, is really thought provoking about the outcome of recent CHAOS and so called 'REVOLUTION.

    Do you see anything like MUKTI BAHINI, in the near future?

  • Ziams Saheb

    So is going to happen, I believe so. And what's wrong with that? It's better to deal with them than to have them on our heads, isn't it?

    Wish you a very happy New Year to you :)

  • "only because of principled politics of nawaz sharif, we are heading towards a peaceful and CIVIL!! transfer of power! which establishment is trying to portray as muk muka!!!!"

    You serious..... is it principled politics or

    really waiting for his turn to get in power and looting

  • It surprises me that a person of that vision and knowledge i.e. Javed Sheikh Saheb is asking sam45 this kind of question!

    There will be no such thing as Mukti Bahini in Pakistan. Of course not. TUQ is definitely not going to play the role of Shaikh Mujeebur Rahman. Why should he or anybody else? They are not going to ask for any division of Pakistan!

  • Situation in all previous elections!



    Your forgot the election of 1977 by ZA Bhutto, which resulted in a massive rigging and hence rejected by the opposition, Pakistan National Alliance (Qomi Ittehad). Many people on this forum are the eye witnesses of that rigging.

    By the way, the only clean election of 1970 was under the supervision of Army. There is a theory/ myth in Pakistan, "Do not let a clean election happened. Things get out of control".

    Even in the last elections, there were massive rigging in Punjab and Baluchistan in favor of Q. The result would have been different otherwise. There were election rigging in Karachi too but the result would not have been different even without rigging as MQM has a popular support. A clean election in Karachi would bring a healthy competition for future elections but no change in result at the moment.

  • Yesterday I watched Talat's interview with Tahir ul Qadri. Talat didn't give Tahir ur Qadri enough time to elaborate his talking points. First half was 'wasted' on 2 questions - TuQ's dual nationality and tax returns. TuQ's media blitz is not helping him anymore.

  • شیرازی بھائی ۔

    ‎اپ بلکل ٹھیک کہہ رہے ہیں ۔ اس وقت پاکستان کا میڈیا دونوں ہاتھوں سے پیسے بنا رہا ہے اور بے وقوف سیاستدان ملک و وقم سے لوٹی ہوئی دولت دوبارہ ملک و قوم پر خرچ کرنے کے بجائے میڈیا کو دے کر میڈیا کے ہاتھ میں کھیل رہا ہے کبھی کوئی سیاستدان میڈیا کی توجہ حاصل کرنے کے لیے پیسہ خرچ کرتا ہے اور کبھی کوئی ۔ اور مسلم لیگ ن تو سمجھتی ہے کہ وہ ہی ایک واحد جماعت ہے جو اچھے ہیں باقی سب برے ہیں ۔ ان کو تو ملک و قوم کو لوٹنے کے لیے اپنی باری کی پڑی ہے ۔ اب میڈیا کسی کو تھوڑا اٹھاتی ہے تو یہ تھر تھر کنپنے لگتے ہیں کہ ایسا نہ ہو ہماری باری نہ ائے ۔ پہلے عمران سے ان کو خطرہ تھا اب طاہرالقادری سے ان کو خطرہ لگا ہوا ہے ۔ ان کے مقابلے میں پپلز پارٹی کی پچھلے پانچ سال کی حکومت کتنی ہی بری رہی ہے مگر ان کے ساتھ یہ مسلہ نہیں ۔ ممکن ہے اس کی وجہ یہ ہو کہ وہ اپنی باری لے چکے پاکستان اور پاکستان کی عوام کو جتنا لوٹنا تھا لوٹ چکے ۔ اس لیے کسی نئے ادمی کے میڈیا پر انے سے مسلم لیگ ن کی طرح ان کے ہاتھ پاوں نہیں بھولتے اور بچوں کی طرح رونا دھونا نہیں مچاتے ۔۔۔۔۔

  • @asif bahi

    TuQ or IK is doing real damage to PM in waiting Nawaz Sharif not PPP. That's why PPP cares less actually Jokers like TuQ strengthens Zardari's hand if anything. But in this day and age of media it's slightly difficult for establishment to maneuver like they have been but it's not difficult.

    Thisis not the first establishment sponsored long march. Nawaz Sharif's long march with establishment's nod. BB's long march with establishment's nod. So were Imran Khan Sunday ke Sunday anti drone concerts.


  • @Asif65

    With all due respect sir ji your PML (N) Derangement Syndrome is getting worse with every new day and one must point that there are hints of total mental paralysis in your writing. PML (N) is rightly worried and they should open their mouths and voice against the Shenanigans of our boys in khaki’s and cheerleaders….PML (N) is not perfect but PML (N) still holds an edge on others …..

  • Aapas Ki Baat - 31st December 2012


  • Above: Najam Sethi’s dissection, this time, with three tongs and a needle:

    Diagnosis: Establishment had finally decided that ill-economic performance and lack of decisions on terrorism of Zardari will not get better in the next government either. (I agree about the prediction of performance of any future government.) This will system of taking turns will not work and let’s derail it.

    Plan-A: Create a Tahrir Square at Constitution Avenue with people from Tahir ul Qadri, Difa-e-Pakistan, MQM, PML-F and Sindhi Nationalists to facilitate Army and Judiciary intervention.

    Plan-B: Bring Imran Khan in with youth anger for the reinforcement of Tahrir Square.

    Plan-C: Let the election happens and when there are hiccups in forming of next coalition government, restart or do a delayed start of Plan-A.