PML(N) and Jamat Islami Itehad/Seat Adjustment in Punjab
PML(N) and Jamat Islami (JI) are in talks to make a an alliance or seat adjustment in Punjab. JI is also negotiating equally with PTI as well. JI is demanding 4 seats for Lahore whereas PML(N) want to give 2. My personal visit to Lahore is suggesting that even 2 seats will be a gift of PML(N) to JI. JI do not have a vital vote bank in Lahore lately. JI have 5,000 to 10,000 votes in many Punjab seats and if they are in alliance/seat adjustment with PML(N) then in close fight among PML(N),PTI and PPP+PML(Q) these votes will play a very vital role. One thing PML(N) should be afraid that if in seat adjustment they give for example 15 seats in Punjab and they win all or most, there is no guaranty that JI will remain in PML(N) alliance and may black mail just MQM did to PPP. Overall it is a calculation of benefits and losses to be judged by PML(N). JI going in opposite camp like PTI may cause PML(N) to lose number of sets in a close three way fight ending up to PPP or PTI.
Wth PTI + PPP alliance and PMLQ merging in PPP, PMLN needs to form alliances in order to make sure that PPP does not comes back in power...
How many seats (and which ones) JI can offer PMLN in the rest of Punjab in exchange for 4 seats from Lahore? The answer is none. JI's strength is a myth; they used to have around 10,000 votes in almost every constituency in 1990's, but the landscape has changed a lot - they only have around 5000 in some places. In rural areas, there is no guarantee that PMLN would get all those votes; rural area dynamics are different than cities.
Time has proven that JI sympathizers now vote for PMLN just to block PPP. PMLN workers in Lahore would seriously be demoralized if JI is able to snatch even two seats as part of the deal. Fareed Paracha, Liaqat Baloch, and Sulman Butt are begging for those seats in Lahore but NS should avoid this trap.
As mawan1971 said in his post, there is no guarantee that JI would side with PMLN after winning.
The only place the alliance could matter is KPK.
Jamat Islami and Pakistan Tehreek Insaf have agreed on seat adjustment in KPK.
There are more anti-JI votes in Punjab than pro so it will hurt PMLN in getting votes from centre left of Punjab. Nawaz was working hard to harness this vote bank but seems like it back to IJI in Punjab.
But, this time around Imran is in T i n d's path to the throne.
I have strong feeling that Fareed Paracha will be gifted a seat from Lahore for nothing.
Totally agree with your first part, JI of his own do not pose any threat to a single NA seat in Punjab. JI may not have over 5000 seats but how about if they have around 5000 votes in say 30 or more seats. JI is a seat spoiler and if you give say 10 seats in Punjab to JI then can avoid of seat spoil in 20 sets when they are with PTI. In KPK Hazara is stronghold of PML(N) and they do not need JI over there at all. PML(N) need JI in Deer, Swat, Malakand, D.I.Khan region and a little portion of upper Hazara. If PML(N) is successful in making seat adjustment with both JI and JUI(F)in KPK I can guarantee you these three will form the provincial government as well. I would prefer to get seat spoiler in my camp rather than in opposition as a insurance policy of close fought seats.
there is no guaranty that JI will remain in PML(N) alliance and may black mail just MQM did to PPP.
Obviously there is no guarantee but one thing is certain,they won't be as bad as PTI or Blackmailer Fazl ur Rehman. PMLN should try accommodating everyone including minorities.Its a real tough job appeasing religious voters who are divided along sectarian lines.If they try attracting Deobandi voters,Shias & Beralvis get alienated,they try accommodating Beralvis then Deobandis start opposing,if Shias are obliged then Debobandis & Beralvis would start objecting. So its really tough to appease religious voters who can't stand the sight of each other and treat each other as sworn enemies.
If JI wants an alliance with PMLN, it would have to be on province to province basis. Demanding 4 guaranteed seats from Lahore in exchange for support in rural Punjab or PKP is a bad deal; JI cannot guarantee any seat in return, can you think of any?
You are also assuming that PMLN and PTI's fight is close; I don't think it that way. In rural areas, people vote on bradri and cast; PMLN wouldn't be able to get all 5000 JI votes anyway.
I am not saying there will be close fight between PTI and PML(N), if fact PTI themselves are seat spoilers in many rural seats. In Punjab there will be fight between PML(N) and PML(Q)+PPP in rural areas, JI and PTI are seat spoilers. In close fight PPP+PML(Q) will get benefit if two game spoilers of PTI+JI are together. PML(N) alliance with JI will neutralize PTI vote in rural areas. In Punjab Cities fight will be between PML(N) and PTI, I agree with you this fight will not be close in most seats but in about 10-20 seats PTI will be close.
JI and PML N alliance in Punjab, in fact its going to help out PTI or 3rd force....
so people who normally dont vote for PML (A - Z) and PPP have something better to pick JI or PTI.
I do not think it will be a alliance but it is more likely to be seat adjustment. There are many constituencies who have over 5000 JI voters who are hard core JI workers/supporters who never change their opinion. If JI gets seat adjustment then on posters it will be written JI+PML(N) joint candidate and candidate will get most of these 5000 votes. In a close three way fight this vote will be vital. JI is a right wing party who get religious votes and both PML(N) and PTI are similar in stance hence right wing party votes will split in three if they participate separately.
I see PTI as Qazi Hussain's dream of Pakistan Islamic Front....(may be with bit of liberal touch)?
or the 3rd option for those who are tired of PML and PPP.
Can PML N afford to let Liaqat Baloch or Hafiz Salman Butt take seat or two in lahore and in return JI has nothing to offer just 5000 or less votes ???
The recent Gallup survey revealed an interesting finding that PTI is eating into PPP's vote bank more than PMLN's. In fact, the PMLN vote bank is almost intact; the disgruntled elements who left for PTI are back because PMLN is playing like a real opposition. SS's development work and PR play also helped boost PMLN's image. But, there are die hard PPP fans who would never come to terms with voting for NS. PPP's recent performance have demoralized them; however, now they see an opportunity to vote for Imran as a way to nail NS.
In KPK, the situation may be different where Imran's drone drama may play a part in winning sympathies of the local pakhtoons.
So, when you say Imran and NS are hunting for the same electorate, that may not be accurate at least in Punjab.
JI is fighting for their survival. They know if they would not be able to get into assemblies this time around, they will be history. They can do seat adjustment with PMLN on few seats in Lahore to get Parach and Butt in NA but their is no guarantee that PMLN will get support of JI voters in rest of the Punjab. Its a catch 22 kinda situation for PMLN, with seat adjustments they may loose couple of seats and don't get much out of it.
Secondly, with this seat adjustment formula how this will pan out that in Punjab JI and PMLN fighting together against PPP and PTI and in KPK JI and PTI fighting together against PMLN and PPP. Though if that happen, JI will be the biggest winner in this game as they would be able to negotiate more seats for NA.
JI+JUI+PMLN against PPP and MQM in Karachi
JI+Sindi Nationalist against PPP in Interior Sindh
JI+PMLN against PPP and PTI in Punjab
JI+JUI against all in Balochistan
JI+PTI against PPP and ANP and PMLN
so, who is losser or winner?
It seems, this time JI will lead PMLN to further low position in parliment compare to 2008 results.
Jamiat Ahl-i-Hadees and JUP both have already announced their collaboration with PMLN in coming elections. So with representation of ahl-i-hadees and barelvis already on its side, some sort of adjustment with JI and with any group of JUI will bring deobandi representation as well. This can be followed by one of the shia groups and then major portion of purely religious vote, however big or small it may be, will go towards PMLN.
"Wth PTI + PPP alliance"
aray woh kaun si party thi jo friendly opposition karti rahi...
With PTI + PPP alliance
No, it would be like this:
PTI <- PPP
Zardari ne wo kar dikhaya jo pehle koi aur nahi kar saka. Yani PPP ka khatma!!!
The real fight will be between PMLN and PTI. Ab ye JI par depend karta he ke kiya wo chor shahi Khandan ka saat dena chahti he ya Change ka???
Asif Rasheed said:
"No, it would be like this:
PTI <- PPP "
Please look again at the equation you wrote.
So now you think PTI will get even less votes than PPP?
حقیقت پسندی اچھی چیز ہے مگر کیا اتنا حقیقت پسند ہونا ضروری ہے کہ آدمی خواب دیکھنا ہی چھوڑ دے
"The real fight will be between PMLN and PTI. Ab ye JI par depend karta he ke kiya wo chor shahi Khandan ka saat dena chahti he ya Change ka???"
So tsunami (over 10 million members) depends on JI (few hundred thousand)?