Constituencies Where PTI is Strong in Punjab
Now that the 23rd March Jalsa is over, Jalsa good or bad but game is back to electable. How many of PTI Candidates have a realistic chance to win a certain seat. I have created a list, I was unable to format it to properly fit on this space. Please follow my facebook page:
Those are twenty electable in total, I have tried to accomodate all big guns of PTI. Please read and discuss
NA 75 ....Sahi family left PTI and joined PMLN.......
And totally disagree with you at Qasoor situation,In NA 139 Malik Rasheed won indepedently ,(plus JAMAAT AEHL HADEES is still in in alliance with PMLN although Lakhnawi joined PMLQ.....),in NA 139 return of Qasoori is very tough.....Both seats are tough seats....You cannot give PTI 90 %
Only at Mianwali but Mush can make a dent there
Lets reserve these speculation to the last day.
Remember last time, 27th dec 2007 was a complete game changer.
lets hope no such unfortunate thing happens this time!
Thanks sweet_heart for correction, I was not aware that Sahi family has left PTI. PTI chances is a quick guess work and very much debatable, 50% PTI chance mean other candidate has equal chance as well. The purpose of this list was to bring forward a list of PTI electable who could potentially be a winner. These are the strongest PTI candidates in 148 NA seats in Punjab. Only IK himself from Mianwali and SMQ from Multan are almost sure winner in my assessment. If anyone know any electable outside of this list or a potential winner in any other province please update me.
faiz tumman is also potential candidate for PTI with 60% chances while PML-N has made a mistake by taking gen majeed and ayaz ameer might not be happy about it..or may not contetst elections...or might be PML-N will not give him ticket...he may also go for PTI...
A very interesting contest in NA 61 (Talagang, dist Chakwal)
Ch Pervez Elahi is very popular in Talagang and did lot of work during his CM term......(according to local people he lost last time just because of Musharraf),PTI candidate is Faiz Tamman(most probably),He won in 2002 election as independent and again won in 2008 on PMLN ticket beating Ch Pervez Elahi by a margin of few hundred votes (but last time Ch Ghulam Abbas and Malik Salim Iqbal groups were with Pervez Elahi),In bye election Mumtaz Tamman won on pmln ticket with support of his nephew Faiz tamman,Now again Mumtaz Tamman is PMLN candidte....Sardar Ghulam Abbas group is contesting independently ...Now both PMLQ MPAs are in PMLN,Malik Salim Iqbal is with PMLN(according to locals only Malik Salim Iqbal has the potential to beat sardars of Tamman)......Now 34%,33%,33% in favour of CH Pervez Elahi...............
Yes Faiz Tamman is for sure a very good candidate, man how I missed him, thanks for update. Another good candidate who is in news these days to join PML(N), Nasurral Dareshak from Rajan Pur. The above mentioned candidate (if Dareshak stays in PML(N))deserve a space in my list and list goes to 22.
And in NA 60 Chakwal competition is between with PMLN and Sardar Ghulam Abbas group.......(Gen Abdul majeed and Ayaz Mir groups are also strong),But at present PMLN is favourite ,even if Ayaz Mir leave PMLN ...........60-40 in favour of PMLN.....IK is also very popular in chakwal...combination of sardar group and PTI could easily win,but dont know why Sardar Ghulam Abbas left PTI
In NA 61, Parvez Ilahai is in much weakened position now because Malik Saleem Iqbal is no more supporting him. He is relying totally on Hafiz Ammar Yasir who'll be a Q league PA candidate this time.
Faiz Tamman was 'sacked' by PMLN due to his fake degree and has now joined PTI and will be potential PTI candidate. Much of his support came from his uncle Sardar Mumtaz and without his support Faiz is not a serious candidate.
There is tough competition for PMLN ticket in NA 61 with Malik saleem Iqbal slight favorite over incumbent Sardar Mumtaz. Decision will be made by next week.
Mansoor tamman will be PPP candidate but PPP may withdraw him in favor of Parvez Ilahi. This will not benefit Parvez Ilahi much as his votes will likely go to another tamman than Parvez.
PMLN is clear favorite here. But if Saleem Iqbal gets ticket and Mumtaz Tamman is not accomodated in senate or PA and decides to support his nephew, then it will be a good competition between PMLN and PTI with PMLN 60/40 favorite.
However, Election Commission can throw a spanner here. faiz Tamman had a fake degree so he may be disqualified under Article 62.
Nasrullah Dareshak from Rajanpur is neither in PTI nor in PMLN.
His negotiations with PMLN have apparently failed as PMLN has refused to accept his demands. He is likely to contest as independent.
Now after putting up a list of about 22 candidates who are electable and have realistic chance to win a constituency. Let us say 70% of these seats is won by PTI than score comes out about 15 Seats which is not a bad score at all. I know PML(N) supporters will argue that 15 out of 22 is too high rating given, anyways at least 10 are in a winning position. Remember this scenario is based on the assumption that there is no big Tsunami waves and momentum is slightly lifted up from where we are now.
Mansoor Tamman is no more in PPP,he applied for the ticket of PMLN....If Faiz and Mumtaz support each other then its difficult to beat them.........But if party accomodate Salim Iqbal at PA(where Sardar Zulfiqar is looking favorite) and Mumtaz Tamman at NA....then PMLN has fair chances to win
PMLN crazies trying to convince each other that PTI isn't a threat. On the contrary, they do pose as a major threat.