NA 55 - Rawalpindi-VI
NA 55 & NA 56 has split my family in pro Sheikh & pro PML(N) groups, Kiyani & Abbasi Families are two of the main vote banks. My in-laws are with Sheikh Rashid & part of the "Bradery" is with PML(N). But most likely, Sheikh will win.
Javed Hashmi: http://www.elections.com.pk/newsdetails.php?id=386
Agha Riaz-ul-Islam PPP 28885
Sardar Muhammad Tariq PML(N) 14405
Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad Independent 40649
Tariq Munir Butt MMA 12297
Valid Votes 96659
Rejected Votes 2174
Total Votes 98833
Registered Voters 254943
Percentage of Votes Polled to Registered Voters 38.77 %
Analysis: on NA55 & NA56
NA 55 is a typical urban/educated constituency where voting is purely on party basis. Biradri system is pretty weak here and besides there is no single biradri that can influence the results of the election. It is a staunch PML(N)constituency where PPP has been miserably failing since 1988.
In 2002 election campaign, Sheikh Rasheed took the plea that he was a Nawaz Sharif loyalist but there was a clique amongst local muslim league leaders that had conspired to deny him PML(N) ticket. He won by convincing voters that even by winning indpendently, he would join PML(N) in assembly. Instead, after winning he joined PML(Q).
The retribution from electorate was swift and his nephew lost by 16,000 votes to Hanif Abbasi in bye elections to the second pindi seat he had won.
This time Sheikh Rasheed is facing the music for becoming the 'voice' of musharraf. He is trying to drum up support by pointing out his development works but the voters here are mostly idological voters, so the poor guy is in pretty bad shape.
The PML(N) which had a relatively weak candidate in 2002, have now Makhdoom Javed Hashmi as its candidate here. Although from Multan, as is being pointed out by Rasheed, he is a national level leader and a fiery orator and is drawing tremendous crowds and support. Seems like PML(N) has found the winning formula this time.
The PPP candidate is Amir Fida Paracha who is likely to get the jiyala votes that have hovered around 25-30,000, not enough to win him the seat.
Adonis, iwish u best of luck 4 ur prediction as regard to sheikh competition against abbasi.
i dont foresee any chance of sheikhoo to win here and agaisnt javed hashmi( came back after 4.5 yrs in prison), he is sitting duck!.
Sheikh Rashid has Charisma, though I don't like policy of his party but I envy him for being a very mature and shrewd politician. He really knows which side wind in blowing. If he loose election, I want him to be a political analyst in various talk show and I want Channels to pay him for his anlysis.
I earnestly support Javed Hashmi winning this seat. But this guy has filed nomination papers for four constituences - two in RWP, one in Lahore and one in Multan.
He is up against
Sheikh Rashid Ahmed
Shah Mahmood Qureshi
I wish he defeats all of them.
8th January's sun will rise wih the defeat of sheikhoo.......inshaallah.
sheikh is local and strong candidate. it is difficult to defeat him. i think that ppp take edge of division of PLM votes.
again this division of votes was there in 2002 also. so there is nothing new that will increase PPP votes here.
Sheikh , however, won the seat using PMLN name and it was immediately reflected in by-elctions when he vacated one seat (NA-56) and dspite being in govt, he cud not save the seat and his nephew lost by 16000 votes.
Javed Hashmi is a big name and he has credibility and gud public image. Also as this is all urban area , so judiciary issue and anti musharraf sentiment will also play important role.
First hand info from the constituency suggests that sheikh rasheed is not in comfortabel position.
visit of Benazir and nawaz sharif to pindi will also make an impact here.
what about lal-masjid factor in this constituency?
yes.,certaily to some extent this factor will also play its role and that is the reason sheikh rsheed is trying to disassociate himself from musharraf and Q league.
but of course peole cant foret that he ws enjoying minsitry that time and cant get away with all the brutal actions of musharraf.
GM, may pindi people be as honest in their opinion as u r!!
i have trust and confidence in peolpe of paksitan.
they will give their decision honestly.!!
sheikh rashid will win this seat , because this is his home ,he is a worker ,and jadugar.
this was his home in 2002 also, then how come he lsot the by elections....and dont forget being in govt and losing the election shows his real popularity.
and also as every body know, last time he won by using name of Nawaz sharif and withiout that he can not win.
SR will win this seat without any problem. One of the reason is Haneef Abbasi joining PLM(N) from MMA. It has created strong resentments in pro Islamic vote back specially in satellite town area. Plus JH's public verdict that he will boycott elections and now supporting Nawaz League is having a negative impact to his campaign as well.
but still u cud not solve the mystery that how come he sot his seat inspite of being in the govt.
U r saying that there is resentment in pro islamic vote becos haneef abbasi is joining from MMA. I cant understand the reaason for that, JI vote will go to PMLN any way if they vote. Sheikh rasheed is on pro musharrraf and ny voter with some inclination to right will never vote for him.
Javed Hashmi public verdict was that he will nawaz sharif if nawaz sahrif will make a deal and again if some one is in favor of Boycott, how come he will vote for sheikh rasheed in that case?
On ground, majority will vote for SR, lke my in laws Abbasi family and kyanis. Plus Chuadry & Mughal families are his major vote bank. There could be a tough competetion in NA-56. But ground reality is that all major vote banks are usual voters of SR. They will remain loyal. Last night meetings took place with few elders in Chaudry bradry and they assured their votes will be cast in his favour. Lack of JH's physical presence in also creating negative impact on his campaign. SR knows his vote banks personally and they are so selfish & ignorant that they will support him again. His corner meetings are already going on successfully and no major upset has happened so far in his public gatherings so far. No significant questions are raised or objections on his past. He is publicly criticising Mush & Co's policies. Plus he is criticising Chaudry brothers as well. In his corner meetings he has switched his side s already and saying what our ignorant forgetful voters want to hear. Same old Nalka, Sarak, Nokery, Construction Map approvals etc Lastly bycott will have a positive impact on SR campaign and will divide PML(N) vote back. JI's bycott will not increase PML(N) vote bank thats for sure.