A PMLN walk over PTI guarantees PPP in 2018

  • Recently, PMLN’s second-in-chief, Shahbaz Sharif said in an interview that PPP will be obliterated in the next elections especially in Punjab. That is contrary to the previous PMLN mantra that voting Imran Khan will bring Zardari into power again. He also indicated that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf will be way behind their expectation. PMLN supporters on this forum have been giving PTI mere 10 seats. The official stance of this site will soon lead to similar numbers. If this happens, PPP's bouncing back into power in 2018 is almost guaranteed.

    This thesis is based on Duverger’s Law, Safe Seat Theory of Discontent and the next government’s inability to make structural changes.

    Duverger's law asserts that the winner-takes-it-all election system tends to favor a two-party system and the proportional representation tends to multipartism. (e.g., In Pakistan only one candidate is elected from a constituency in comparison to Israel where a number candidates are elected based on the number of votes they get). PMLN strongly subscribes to this phenomenon. Due to the multi-ethnic nature of Pakistani politics this law may be valid on regional bases.

    Duverger (French doo-vegh-jaygh) suggests two reasons. One is the result of the "fusion" (or an alliance like fusion) of the weak parties, and the other is the "elimination" of weak parties by the voters, by which he means that the voters gradually desert the weak parties on the grounds that they have no chance of winning. PTI already indicated of no fusion with any party. If PTI could not become a part of two party system, the PPP is guaranteed to stay in for a long time.

    Public discontent in Pakistan is very high. Assuming that the dissatisfied voters could not bring a change, they will desert the party that has been run over by a stronger party. Trends already indicates that PPP is gearing toward 2018. Voters have short memory. They will forget PPP’s past performance just like the current voters have forgotten the miserable economic conditions of Nawaz government during 1997-1999. Persona of new PPP leader will be propped up. Bilawal’s match with a Punjabi political family would be a plus.

    Key to the energy solution is Sindh. Cheap coal and natural gas mainly come from Sindh and PPP will make all efforts to give PMLN a short end of the stick. Sindhis will not let Punjabis build any hydroelectric projects, which is another source of cheap electricity. After five years PMLN may be able to fill the shortfall of megawatt-hours but at the cost of extremely high energy rates. The current collection of feudal will not let PMLN do any structural change in the governance and economy. This time even a motorway to Mari Indus or a Bullet train to Banbhore would not do what the Metro was supposed to accomplish.

    The prophetic statement that Nawaz and Zardari have a Muk Muka to take turns will become true.

  • @azizi

    This two party system is applicable only in Punjab as remaining three provinces have different regions for each party's stronghold. I agree two party system will remain in Punjab and you will see in 2013 elections, PML(N) Vs PTI in urban areas of central and northern punjab and PPP Vs PML(N) in entire rural areas of Punjab and some urban areas of south Punjab will also see PPP Vs PML(N) again.

    In Punjab in my personal assessment PTI will replace PPP gradually, PPP will remain in race as third force but competition will be between PML(N) and PTI in future. This assessment is based on assumption that IK and PTI keep working to strengthen their party even in case of poor show in 2013 elections.

  • It is more than likely that the next government will be a coalition between Pml-N and PPP.I had stated that more than a year ago and still think so.

  • "Dilli door hey"

    2018 is too far to even bother thinking about it.

  • @Zia M

    A PPP+ PML(N) coalition government is only likely if PTI wins more than 50 seats. If PTI remains around 25 seats as expected than PML(N) is likely to go over or close to 100 seats and PPP is likely to remain under 60. In this scenario PML(N) have so many options for coalition like ANP, JI, JUI (F), PML(F), Baluchistan Parties and Independents. MQM can even join PML(N) in coalition as their record shows that they never remain out of government. PML(N) is unlikely to join hands with PPP, PTI and PML(Q) and they will try their best to avoid this.

  • mawan,

    I think only a national government can survive for the next 5 years.

    PML_N can't afford to have both PTI and PPP(the only national party) in the opposition.

    But is Nawaz Sharif far sighted enough to realize the need for a national government?I think so, he has acted wisely so far.

  • Federal govt, formed by any party, will last 5 years only by having support of Sind govt. i agreed as Zia M sahab said, PMLN will form govt with support of PPP.

  • @Zia M and BitterTruth

    I am not against national government, if PPP and MQM become part of next government, it can help solve Karachi issue. The problem is political, PML(N) will not take PPP in coalition until they have no choice, IK shouting last five years as noora kushti, so I don't they will give this political mileage to PTI. PML(N) will accept every party except PPP and PML(Q), these two are last resort for them, PML(N) always believe on long term and not like Zardari to complete five years whatever way it is possible.

  • ^^^^

    I don't think that it will be difficult for any party to form govt in Center, as either PPP, PMLN or may be PTI as national party would be having their own clear options to form allied govt.

    But the real issue would be govt in provinces especially in Sind, I believe that PMLF, NPP & Arbabs will prefer Sindhi assembly instead of National Assembly especially after recent amendment for empowering provinces. In that case PMLN, other than PPP, has limited options of JUI and JI weak support and that is also in return of KPK weak govt against strong opposition

  • PMLN will make the simple majority. PMLN's simple majority will only be compromised if PTI does spectacularly which I don't see happening.

  • @BitterTruth

    Both MQM and PPP cannot sit in opposition in Sindh assembly. If PML(N) wish to have a government with the help of PML(F), NPP etc. they have to accept either PPP or MQM in the government. On the other hand if MQM and PPP join hands no one can stop them to form a government. I think for PML(N) it is better for them to take MQM both in centre and province to form a anti-PPP government in Sindh. PML(N) seems to me will emerge as third force after PPP and MQM in Sindh.

  • ^^ My take for PMLN is to let Sindh be governed by opposition just like they did in Punjab. I don't understand why all provincial govts need to be of same coalition as of federal. Don't let small pressure groups like mqm, pmlf, JI, dictate the terms of running federal govt. Even after 18 amendment, it is federal govt which calls the shot in major policies which affect all provinces. let ppp govern Sindh for 5 yrs without getting any federal govt help so that they will be dead in their core constituency too after 5 yrs.

  • @bechari-awam

    your scenario will also allow PMLN to clean up the city since PPP and MQM will be at each others throats again.

  • @bechari-awam

    I strongly recommend you should watch today's "Tonight with Jasmeen" (only for few minutes) and see in what condition is Hyderabad (Sindh's second largest and one of Pakistan’s largest city). Entire area of Hyderabad looks like a landfill where people throw garbage along with broken roads, dirty water for drinking etc. I want PML(N) in alliance with other parties to form a provincial government in Sindh and let the people feel the difference. People of Sindh will go on voting PPP for ever unless someone show them a difference. Coalition government in Sindh will help PML(N) built metro bus project for Karachi and motor-way. They have to take MQM otherwise they cannot make simple majority.

  • @mawan1971

    Why MQM, why not PPP? I think it will damage PMLN's repute more if it sat with MQM, a party that PMLN has taken a much harder line with than PPP. Who do you see as the lesser evil?

  • @short life endless plans

    The problem is you have to take either MQM or PPP and if they join hands with PPP then it will be all PPP government and PML(N) and other parties will have no control just like MQM has no control but they are still in government to enjoy ministries. I want MQM for another reason as well, if they conduct local body election and PPP is in opposition they will not be able to influence local body elections and real representative of people will come in power on grass root level. MQM people on this forum are saying that if local body elections are held and power is transferred to real representatives Karachi problem can be solved. Let us give MQM and coalition government a chance to improve Karachi condition and Sindh in general.

  • MQM's stance is this: Give us the local body elections otherwise there would be bloodshed on the streets. This is pure blackmailing and PMLN shouldn't cave into the demands of MQM thugs. They should just let PPP form the Sindh government with MQM support; they are perfect for each other. This is the only way people would be able to see both parties' real faces (if they haven't see before already).

    PMLN should just install their own governor in the province and complete some mega projects using federal money. PMLN should spend more time in interior Sindh than the urban part; they may have a better chance of support from there in future.

  • @mawan1971

    Well, the way MQM has done politics of violence and the way they get heavy mandate (videos on youtube), it is a hard pill for me to swallow. Given that PPP is going to win from Sindh and MQM will be the second party, most likely PMLn will be sat in opposition in Sindh, don't you think?

    If either of the parties were thinking of an alliance with PMLN, they would have not co-operated on the interim set-up with each other they way they did. Seems to me that they have already decided to continue their alliance, as both Parties can not afford to stay out of government.

  • @short life endless plans

    Well, my point is if you let PPP and MQM to rule Sind, people of Sindh will keep voting them for ever. If for one term PML(N) make an alliance with either PPP or MQM and do the development works like in Punjab, people will feel the difference. If PPP in the provincial government it will completely dominate the government and PML(N) will not get any chance to show their good governance. If PPP and MQM join hand, no one can stop them and it is not democratic at all to violate people openion, let the Sindh people face the music for another five years.

    Khuda ne aaj tak is qom ki halat nahin badli

    No Ho jiseh kiyal aap apni halat ke badalney ka

  • There are chances of boycott by certain political parties to damage the credibility of the Elections.