Afghanistan 2 years from now and 5 years from now



  • What do you think Afghanistan will look like in 2011 from and 2014.

    year 2009 - year 2011


    I think North of Kabul will remain under the control of Northern alliance. Relative peace will prevail and Northern alliance will run the government and Karzai or his like running the central government. It wont change much from what it is today.

    South of Kabul, there will be fierce battles between Taliban and NATO. Taliban will be fighting guerilla war in hiding. NATO forces will be sitting in major cities and towns of Southern Afghanistan by the end of 2009.

    year 2011 - year 2014


    Relative peace and progress North of Kabul. North of Kabul run by central government in Kabul.

    Rift in Taliban. Multiple groups within Taliban fighting with each other. NATO realizes they can never defeat Taliban all out so they form alliances with good Taliban. In some provinces former Taliban commanders who have now become good Taliban are ruling. NATO forces gradually move out of those provinces. Mulla Zaeef now represent Pakhtoon and Mulla Omar sidelined or killed. By the end of 2011, Mulla Zaeef or his like will be running Southern Aghanistan. Mulla Omar's faction still carry out activites now and then but they have pretty much lost all public support and strength.

    Effectively, Afghanistan will split into two although it will remain as one country on the map. Northern Alliance running North AFghanistan and Mulla Zaeef running South of Afghanistan. Mulla Zaeef will start a reconciliatory efforts with other pakhtoons and Gulbadeen and Haqqani gets bits and pieces of Southern Afghanistan government.

    Nato will remain in Aghanistan but in fewer numbers and their combat role will erode.



  • British:

    3 Anglo-Afghan wars: 19th century

    Withdrew from Afghanistan after humiliating defeats

    Lost its status as "Great" Britain.

    Soviet Union,

    Attacked and occupied Afghanistan: 1979

    Humiliated and retreated with collapse of communism and Soviet union:1988

    Total stay= 9 Years

    America/NATO,

    Attacked and occupied 2001

    Complete defeat and collapse of NATO and America, 2012

    Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan 2012.

    Afghanistan will confirm itself as graveyard of Empires.



  • Analyzing the pawns, but missing the players such as US/NATO/Iran/Russia/India, without analyzing their role & interests in the region you can't complete the whole picture.



  • Good one chechen!

    Nature's decision though unpredictable but sometimes could appear to be so obvious...!

    Is it me or something went wrong with the nick of above user?

    It was a different nick with that comment?...deymn!

    :)

    ps...Na ker yaar...na ker!!!

    oye JJ khan shararati bachay..kiya ker rahey ho aur kesay ker rahey ho?...lol



  • Now, I think focus has already shifted to Pakistan, the actual theater of war is now Pakistan.

    They do not want to imagine failure in this region because they are very well aware of consequences, evident from history of other great powers.

    Game plan is to de-nuke Pakistan and balkanize it to make it subservient to India.

    And failure is their destiny which they can't avoid, inshallah.



  • @j j

    battle ground have changed from afganistan,iran,iraq to pakistan.

    if americans and india want to fight chinese threat,they need to have control over pakistani assets.

    china is planning to threaten us in indian ocean,we would chase them to china sea.

    in 2 years india would have atleast 3 nuclear submarines,1 each for arabian sea,bay of bengal and indian ocean.

    usa is present in diego garcia .



  • Izbaek,

    China's engagement with USA is quite sophisticated and so is with India and I don't want to go into that detail for now.

    It is not going to be chasing each other anywhere. It is more to do with trading/economy... plus regional presence.

    For now India's status is like, "hum bhi hay pancho sawaro main"..



  • Also keep in mind these facts:

    The Bharati plan to link Chahbahar to Kabul has failed due to a few reasons.

    1. The “Taliban” (and 38 other anti-occupation forces) now control about 70% of Afghanistan.

    2. ISAF and NATO does not control the famous Ring Road around Afghainstan

    3. The Bharati built Zergham-Dilaram road has fallen into huge pothole of Afghan politics. It cannot be used and many of the bridges have already been blown up

    4. Delhi anf Teheran have fallen apart and there is no incentive in Iran to guve Bharat access to Kabul r beyond.

    5. Instead Iran is working with Islamabad on building the Iran-Pakistan pipeline.



  • @ j j

    who is funding pakistan to make the pipeline?

    come on,without external funds pakistan can't complete such a large project.

    no american,world bank,asian development bank will help you.

    oil from iran cant be exported to china ;the terrain wont make the cost feasible.

    does iran have enough money to invest ??

    iran pakistan pipeline is a hogwash without indian presence.

    and india doesn't want the pipeline passing through pakistan.



  • Izbaek,

    In all these regional scenarios, Pakistan is the key. Can't by pass Pakistan, can't avoid Pakistan!

    Even if you by pass Pakistan by going through chah bahar, still the reality in Afghanistan will define the course!

    So far pro Pakistan pushtoon resistance is dominating Afghanistan!

    Pakistan doesn't need India or USA, they depend on us for their existence in Afghanistan. A strong resurgent Pakistan will fail Indian dreams! ! !



  • Afghanistan and afghanis playing a role for the Muslims ummah against the Evils want to have their say in the region and grip the resources and souls of people living here..

    Against Russia a very good role and now against US extremly nice fight back as US has more advanced tech as compared to Russia of 1970......



  • as JJK said without knowing strategy of US/China/Russia/Iran/India & Pakistan, future of Afghanistan cannot be predicted..im sure if they all leave afghanistan today there will be peace in very near future but obviously thats not going to happen as all these countries have interest in this poor country..

    @izbeak Pakistan/Iran dont need india to build pipeline for them..IPI was an effort of peace in this region which obviously india/america dont want..india never wants peace in its neighbourhood(according to chankkia doctrine), so by joining IPI she would be bound to peace which is against her hegemonic thinking.



  • @nsah

    india is always in favor of peace but 26/11 has undone all what we achieved .

    moreover we are left with no option but to suspect your establishments

    ipi could have backfired on us.we don't want to held ransom. and there was no security of the gas pipelines which could be easily attacked by taliban .



  • Izbaek,

    We witnessed Indian camp defeated and humiliated!!! Vajpai switched Russian camp with American. It is too early to claim anything, but the way situation in Afghanistan is developing it is convincing that India will have to forfeit all the investments done in Afghanistan.

    Once West retreats from here, then there will be no stopping -inshAllah!



  • @j j

    afganistan won't be lost to pakistan.

    i am in favor of american defense outsourcing to india.

    i wont mind 1 lak indian troops protecting afganistan,if we get 50 billion $ from americans in a year.

    vajpai didn't switch camps.we have an independent policy. russia is no more a super power .so americans stand out alone.

    indian investments in afganistan are more in form of infrastructure development :road,railway,parliament,hospital ;training native afganistan army.

    who is going to stop india ?

    i doubt pakistan stands at 1% of india in any field.

    we would be monitoring all your activies from all weather spy satellites which coould see all activities from china,pakistan and afganistan to central asia. and with in few years we would have an indigenous gps =>less dependence on usa.

    frankly speaking;pakistan has become weaker in last 10 years while india has developed manifold economically,militarily;people are optimistic in india.

    so as a nation,we stand out united.so don't expect things like kashmir and khalistan can be re initiated .

    those days we were weak and small nations like australia,canada,japan,uk behaved like a bully.

    but next millennium belongs to india ,we are going to control arabian sea,bay of bengal and entire indian ocean.



  • Izbaek,

    I am sure you know that BJP is/was pro-america while congress has been pro british.

    With help of CIA assets america tried "kargil tactics" to bring BJP back in to power but congress played amicably, also credit goes to britain for handling the situation. I mean the mumbai episode was done to help get BJP into power.

    You know, we in Pakistan have deep analysis of your country, don't worry. As soon as we sort our things out we will dissect you like a smooth surgeon!

    Afghanistan is already lost to pushtoon resistance, West is only working on exit strategy. I am sure you know ground realities well!



  • izbaek, Wishful bombastic thinking. Are you seeing windmills like Don Quixote?

    Once the US/NATO war criminals are laid to rest, India's picnic in Afghnistan ends automatically.



  • @ j .j

    you have incomplete knowledge of india.

    bjp was in power during kargil war .congres and bjp ,both work on same agendas.

    don't believe in conspiracy theories.26/11 was accepted by pakistani prime minister,national security advisor,your interior minister.

    india isn't pakistan.even might americans and other western puppets co-operated with pakistan and tried to dissect using khalistan,kashmir but you could no harm to us.



  • 26/11 was accepted by pakistani prime minister,national security advisor,your interior minister.

    They do not represent Pakistan. They are same who sold poor Pakistanis as piece of meat to US war criminals for internment at Gitmo. There was not an iota of evidence against those innocents. Busharraf even admitted to that in his auto biography.



  • @chachu

    now you will say that dawood,let and jaise don't live in pakistan.

    we get their live videos from pakistan : lol speaking good words in support of india :)

    its good to accept the truth rather than live in self denial.

    imaaandari naam ki chizz nahi hai lagta hai pakistan mein.