Pakistan Political Future-Agha H Amin

  • The concrete solution of Pakistans problems is social justice and end of corruption of politicians and military.a vain hope.if that does not happen countless military operations will fail.Already the waziristan operation has failed.Now who will do it? not the politicians? A violent coup by a minority political or military (not the army chief) may be the solution.

    Meanwhile things are moving too fast and with complex factors pakistans balkanisation if the present political and military culture continues is not far off.Pakistans political system has failed.Its army has failed in reforming the political system.

    The solution is radical reform.if that is done there is a hope, but who will do it is a big question.The situation has parallels to the later mughals: --

    (1) Failure in dealing with sikh and maratha insurgents (failure in FATA and


    (2) Foreign invasion of nadir shah (possible invasion by India).

    (3) Pashtun re-assertion under Ahmad Shah 1748-1773

    (4) Arrival of east india compapany (USA and Private Contractors)

    (5) Extreme corruption of mughal nobility and factions, Turani and

    Irani parties (shi sunni strife)

    The result: - Balkanisation of Mughal Empire followed by its reunification and conquest by English East India Company

    There are new Factors however: --

    1-Islamic Extremism of an international type

    2-Nuclear weapons

    3-Institutionalised political and military corruption

    Seen in a nutshell Pakistans centre of gravity is its army with its nuclear weapons which are the real deterrence contributing paradoxically to Pakistans survival and also seen as a threat by Pakistans neighbours.

    The Pakistani judiciary alone does not have the intututional coercive force to purge Pakistan of all the maladies that afflict Pakistan.

    You remove the nuclear weapons and Pakistans army will lose its deterrent value against India and Pakistan will be Balkanised.

    Broadly speaking five scenarios: --

    1 -- Scenario one may be a military takeover with an aim to clean the mess.The chances of this are 60% in the next two to five years.If this fails it will be most likely followed by an external war and denuclearisation and Balkanisation.

    2 -- Scenario two may be continued political instability and manipulation of politicians by the Pakistani military in an effort to act as best guardiansof Pakistans territorial and ideological frontiers.Chances of this happening are 75% in next five years.

    3 -- Scenario Three may be major breakdown because of insurgency and external war followed by denuclearisation and Balkanisation.Chances 60% in next ten years.

    4 -- Scenario Four may be violent military coup by lower or mid ranking officers and radiacal policy changes and bloody political killings.Chances are 25% but can grow to 75% if scenarios 1, 2 and 3 above listed occur in a direction detrimental for Pakistan and things deteriorate. This scenario four may be Pakistans only salvation.

    5 -- Scenario Five is election of a political leader who is brilliant and has the resolve and ability to carry out reform and succeed.The probability of this happening is 25% unless successively linked to Scenario two or Scenario Four.It is more likely that this brilliant and resolute leader is an army brigadier or major or lieutenant general.

    If a solution is not found successfully in next five years Pakistans destruction and disappearance may not be far away.

  • "(3) Pashtun re-assertion under Ahmad Shah 1748-1773"

    That threatens you the most doesn't it you communist supporter?